WI Primary - Early Exit Polling (UPDATED) (no candidate info yet)

CNN loves to do this to me.  They talk about getting in "early exit polling" results.  We all know that, especially after 2000, news organizations won't report how each candidate is doing per the exit polls - they won't do that until the polls actually close (and I agree with this, though it's making me nuts these past few Tuesdays!).

But what they WILL do is give you demographic and "thoughts of the voter" types of information.  And with that, CNN brings us their first early exit polling report (for clarity, this came at 5:28pm EST).  Transcription over the fold.

Via CNN's Bill Schneider:

SCHNEIDER: Wolf, what we're learning is that trade is a big issue in Wisconsin, among Democrats in particular.  Take a look - we asked Democrats voting today in Wisconsin, what do you think the effect of trade is - does it mostly lose jobs, create jobs, or have no effect?

Trade with other countries:
Loses jobs: 70%
Creates jobs: 17%
No effect: 9%

Overwhelmingly, the view of Democrats in Wisconsin, 70% say trade loses jobs.  It doesn't create jobs.  Which is maybe why Senator Clinton has been critical and says she wants to re-examine trade deals, and Senator Obama says he's been critical of trade and NAFTA longer than she has.

Well the issue that's at the top of the minds of the Democrats in Wisconsin today AND the Republicans is - no guessing here - the economy.  Take a look - it's the number one issue to Barack Obama's voters - 43% named the economy.  Clinton voters - 43% named the economy.

Economy is top issue:
Obama's Voters: 43%
Clinton's Voters: 43%

Interestingly, they went to McCain's demographic (Huckabee voters also listed the economy as their number one concern) and he was the ONLY candidate for whom the economy was not top on their minds - it came in at 33%, where as IRAQ came in at 35% for McCain voters.

Huh.

I'll try to update this as they get to more exit polls - they're piecing it out in little dribs and drabs to keep me watching.

Let the speculation begin.

Update [2008-2-19 17:53:16 by RenaRF]: Cheez Whiz posted this informative comment:

rom Marc Ambinder

Info from our trusty pals at CBS News: this electorate is very white; only four in ten have a "college degree." They're "less affluent" than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.

-- Issue number one is, of course, the economy, followed by health care... adding the economy and health care brings you to nearly 70% of the electorate.

-- Change trumps experience, 52 to 24.

-- Very few first time voters -- only 17%.

-- 27% of the electorate were independent

-- Clinton was seen as the most unfair attacker;

-- Obama (55%) was seen as the candidate most like to improve relations with the res tof the world.

-- Clinton and Obama are seen as equally qualified to be commander in chief (50% and 48%), while Obama draws 60% or more on the questions of who best can unite the country and beat the Republicans.

Update [2008-2-19 18:48:19 by RenaRF]: CNN teases us further:

SCHNEIDER: You know that Wisconsin is an open primary as several other states are.  Which means that anyone can vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries.  Let's take a look at who voted today or who is voting today in the Democratic primary in Wisconsin.

Vote by party ID:
Democrat: 64%
Independent: 27%
Republican: 9%

64% of them - almost 2/3 - are in fact Democrats.  People who call themselves Democrats.  But 27% are not Democrats, they're Independents.  That's always been a good constituency for Barack Obama, and they are well represented - nearly a quarter of the Democratic voters are Independents and you've got 9% who are Republicans.  I wonder who they're planning to vote for between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  Could be very interesting.

Now. What does the Democratic primary look like by race?  This is a state that is overwhelmingly - Wisconsin is overwhelmingly white.  take a look.

Vote by race:
White: 88%
African American: 8%:
Latino: 4%

Almost 90% - 88% of the Democrats voting in Wisconsin are in fact white Democrats.  This is a whiter state than most of the states that voted on Super Tuesday or in other primaries so far.  African Americans are only 8% - and of course, they too are a base for Barack Obama, but they're not well-represented in Wisconsin.  If Barack Obama has a chance to win Wisconsin, he has to do it in a state where there are not that many African American voters.  And if Hillary Clinton is depending on Latino voters, she's not going to find very many of them in the Wisconsin Democratic party.  Only 4% of the Democrats in Wisconsin voting today are of Latino descent.  This is a test - this is a primary in which white voters have the overwhelming preponderance of the votes, and not very different than the Republicans.

::snip::

Now here's a big difference between the two parties.  Take a look at men and women voting in the Democratic primary:

Vote by gender:
Female: 57%
Male: 43%

Democrats are 57% women, 43% men.  Women clearly the preponderant vote in the Democratic party, of course one of the leading candidates, Hillary Rodham Clinton, is a woman and it's drawing a lot of women voters.