"Toast". [Minor Update]

I didn't write the headline, nor do I particularly read The New York Post - in fact, I don't think I've EVER read it.  But on Morning Joe earlier today, they held up (as they always do) a variety of newspaper front pages and this one summed it all up for me.

Some explanation after the fold, and perhaps not what you'd expect (or maybe so).

I was up until 12:30am watching the news coverage and commenting in the umpteen "results" and "speech" threads here at Daily Kos (thanks, Markos, for providing a home for my nervous energy).  When I went to bed, IN had a delta of about 16.6K votes.  I had no particular realistic hopes that Obama would actually win IN while I slept, but I DID know that the margin was going to be close.  Period.  

So it was interesting to me when Morning Joe held up their headlines.  The question, for me, was: "Is she really toast?"  Let's look. [Note: All chart figures are taken from Obama's CNN page found here and Clinton's CNN page found here.  I merely put them into a spreadsheet.]

Here's Obama's figures through all contests to date.  This particular chart does NOT include FL or MI:

And now here are the same figures for Clinton:

That leaves a delegate delta of 150 (advantage Obama) and a popular vote delta of 473,626 (advantage Obama).  With only a handful of delegates and states remaining, this is a substantial lead.  But what if we included FL and MI?  Here's how it looks:

THAT leaves a delegate delta of 92 (advantage Obama) and a popular vote delta of 95,070 (advantage Obama).  [Note: I did a simple pledged delegate allocation for FL and MI.  I took the total number of pledged delegates available and multiplied that by the percentage of popular vote either achieved.  In the case of MI, where Obama was not on the ballot, I took the 40% "uncommitted" and gave all of that to Obama.]  It's a tighter case in this scenario, but still a case.

What remains, then, are six races over the next month.  Even if you DO seat the FL and MI delegations AS IS (which I am totally against on principle.  I do think they should be seated, but not as is.  It's patently unfair), Barack Obama is still ahead in popular vote and pledged delegates TODAY.  In a scenario where the rules are the rules and FL and MI are NOT counted in the larger effort to achieve the nomination, the popular vote and delegate count leads are impossible to overcome.  In a scenario where FL and MI ARE included, the margins get tighter but there are still margins.

So it really baffles me.  I listened to part of the Clinton campaign's press conference call earlier today (courtesy of MSNBC) and was disgusted to hear Wolfson continue to beat the drum that only Hillary Cinton can win the white vote and the latino vote - thereby trying to draw a brighter divisive line.

I understand all the arguments that she should be allowed to continue.  But given the tone of her campaign just today, I would completely disagree.  Further dividing the Democratic party and creating resentments is literally the same as handing votes to John McCain.

Where is the party leadership on this?  Why aren't superdelegates seeing what every other average person can see with very little effort?  It's like Iraq all over again - you didn't have to be an expert on the middle east or in middle eastern studies to see how wrong the Iraq war was.  Will our party never learn?

She IS toast.  I woke up this morning and really, genuinely hoped that she would give me something - anything - that could restore her somewhat in my eyes.  I always had respect for her - but I find it fading on an hourly basis.  I can't decide if it's tragic that she's so disconnected from reality, or simply criminal that she's such a narcissist.  One thing IS clear to me, though - she's not getting out on her own.

Superdelegates - go rent a spine and make the choice for her.  Enough.

UPDATE: I just heard Wolfson as I typed this, AGAIN, on CNN talk about Obama's inability to capture white voters.  Asshole.

[If you're interested - opinion poll info: WV, KY & OR via Rasmussen.  Puerto Rico, Montana, and  South Dakota via Pollster.]

Update [2008-5-7 18:49:25 by RenaRF]: Riddle me this.  I just had a conversation with a friend who I would say is a moderate independent and certainly not supporting EITHER Obama or Clinton.  He told me that he felt she "deserved" the VP slot.  I almost choked on my gum.  Thoughts?